Friday, April 24, 2020

The Politicization of COVID


With the pandemic of COVID-19 we have seen things become politicized in a way and to a degree they never should.  It’s not the first time we have witnessed this.  Think back to the politization of vaccines we have witnessed by many.   Currently, COVID-19 potential treatments have been politized with hydroxychloroquine.  Some opinions are changing as more data and evidence is coming out.  This is leading to options based on science, experiments and real data, not hunches or politics.  But, desperate times cause for desperate measures.  And, at the beginning we were definitely in desperate times.

Now, Governors are giving “guidance” to Medical Examiners and physicians on filling out death certificates.  This is scary ground!  A medical examiner is a trained physician.  And, in many instances a pathologist with specialized training.  A close friend and colleague of mine recently received “guidance” from one state to list the primary cause of death on death certificates as “COVID-19” if confirmed that they had the disease by testing OR “probable COVID-19” if suspected to have the disease but not tested.  Yes, you read that right...suspected but not tested!

The cause of death section of a death certificate is designed to elicit an opinion.  In some instances this might vary among individual physicians because it is an opinion.  This is how a pathologist, especially a forensic pathologist, is trained and this is how the CDC explains a death certificate should be completed.    

Keep in mind there is also a section on the death certificate for underlying causes.  This is a section below the immediate cause of death for disease felt to initiate the final event.  Making COVID-19 the primary cause of death in anyone who dies and has tested positive is without a doubt inaccurate in some cases.  For instance, let’s say someone has a heart attack and dies.  The cause of death is a myocardial infarct.  However, if they had tested positive for COVID-19 upon admission, or before, physicians are being instructed that the cause of death should be COVID-19.  This can be inaccurate and flat out wrong as COVID-19 could potentially be listed as an underlying cause, not the immediate cause of death.

I understand this is being done to help collect data, but it will definitely cause an overestimation of deaths due to COVID-19.   In addition, it will cause some deaths to be contributed to COVID-19 that aren’t (remember the “guidance” of those suspected to have the disease but not tested).  

Even more worrisome is how some state governments are instructing trained physicians on how to fill out a death certificate.  The cause of death is an opinion that should be completed by an educated trained physician.   Not a politician by proxy.   This is now politicizing the pandemic even more and the data to help learn, study and make future decisions.  Manipulating data is bad science!  In fact, it’s not science!

I have no issue with politicizing healthcare policy.  Just make it a healthy debate.   But science, data, treatment and physicians trained judgment and autonomy should never politicized.  

Thursday, April 16, 2020

ANOTHER COVID UPDATE

Well, its been about a week and half since my last post with the COVID numbers.  First, a shout out to my good friend Dr. Dave B for catching a mistake.  I inadvertently left a "zero" off of Iran's number of cases when I last posted.  The deaths and percentages were correct, just an oder of 10 wrong for the number of cases due to my sloppy proof reading.  Thanks to Dr. Dave for catching this so I could correct it!

There are currently over 2 million cases world wide and over 141,000 deaths.  This gives an overall  world wide death rate of greater than 6.5%.  The US continues to lead the world in number of cases and deaths by a long shot.  And, as you can see below, the percent of diagnosed cases that result in death continues to climb for all countries not named China.  Germany leads the way with the lowest death rate at 2.8%.  The US is at 5%.  Both have at least doubled since my last posting.  Let's hope we have seen the worst and are on the better side of the apex moving forward.

As is the same for everyone, COVID continues to wreak havoc on our world and our country.  A new norm will develop once all the dust settles.  If your'e like me you've often wondered or talked with friends and loved ones about what the new norm will look.  A few questions (and please feel free to comment)...How will this effect social gatherings such as sporting events?  What new businesses or services will be born out of this pandemic?  How will healthcare change from both a policy and a delivery perspective?  Just a few things I ponder often now.

One thing is certain, with great changes and challenges, new opportunities will always arise.  Despite all the loss and devastation, much good will come from this when the dust settles.  Stay safe everyone!


Corona Cases as of 4/15/20 
Country
Cases
Deaths
 Change in
% Deaths
USA
648148
32588
2.5->
5
Spain
180659
18812
9.3->
10.4
Italy
165155
21645
12.1->
13.1
France
147863
17167
9.1->
11.6
Germany
134753
3804
1.3->
2.8
UK
98476
12868
8.7->
13.1
China
82295
3342
4.1->
4.1
Iran
76389
4777
6.1->
6.3
Turkey
69392
1518
2->
2.2

Friday, April 3, 2020

COVID-19 Update

It's been 8 days since I originally posted data on the effects COVID-19 is having on the world.  Obviously, those numbers are rapidly changing daily (unless you're China).  Needless to say, there should be an asterisk next to China as more and more reports seem to believe we aren't sure what numbers we can trust coming from that country.  After all, they do have a history of inaccurate and deceptive reporting in past epidemics.  So, take the numbers and death percentages of China with a grain of salt.

A few observations:  There are more than 1 million cases worldwide.  We have surpassed, by far, all other countries.   Spain and Italy are 2nd and 3rd in total cases diagnosed and we more than double them!

Our death rate has increased from 1.5% to 2.5%.  I think this isn't a surprise given the lag in deaths after diagnosis.  I'm hoping this percentage will not increase and may even decrease slightly as this spreads across the US more.  Spain, Italy, Germany, France, UK, Switzerland, Belgium and Netherlands have all increased as well.  And, with the exception of Germany, they have all experienced a much larger percent increase than us.  Germany has increased by 0.7% percent but this has more than doubled.  I expect Germany will increase more as this progresses.

It will be interesting to watch the data and statistics as this develops across the globe.  And, I still stand by my conclusion last week that despite what the politicians, "experts" or the WHO says, there is no other place in the world I'd rather have care, especially life saving care, than the United States of America.  Stay safe and well!

COVID-19 Cases as of 3/3/20 at 8am EST

Country
 Cases
Deaths
% Deaths
WHO Ranking
Change
USA
245442
6098
2.5
37
1.5->2.5
Spain
117710
10935
9.3
7
7.3->9.3
Italy
115242
13915
12.1
2
10->12
Germany
85063
1111
1.3
25
0.6->1.3
China
81620
3322
4.1
144
France
59105
5387
9.1
1
5.3->9
Iran
53830
3294
6.1
93
UK
33718
2921
8.7
18
4.9->8.7
Switzerland
19303
573
3
20
1.4->3
Turkey
18135
356
2
70
Belgium
16770
1143
6.8
21
3.5->6.8
Netherlands
14697
1229
8.4
17
5.6->8.4
Austria
11301
168
1.5
9
Candada
11283
173
1.5
30
S Korea
10062
174
1.7
58